Search any drug on the FDA's active shortage list to see how closely it resembles the discontinuation notices on the same list, and why.
The FDA's list mixes two kinds of record: drugs that are short right now, and notices that a company will stop making a product. The score shows how closely a current shortage resembles those notices. It is not a forecast of how or when the shortage will end.
A gradient-boosted model trained on one day's copy of the public openFDA shortage list. It scores about 0.93 AUC on drug profiles it has not seen, but a plain count of how many makers are listed for the drug scores about 0.92 on the same test. That count is the main signal. Dosage form and therapeutic category add little.
A signal to support your own judgment, not a certainty. The FDA removes resolved shortages from its list after 6 months and discontinuation notices after 1 year, so no listing is followed over time and this cannot say how long a shortage will last. Only drugs currently shortage-listed are indexed, and it does not predict which drugs go into shortage next. Not a substitute for official FDA guidance.
Shortage and discontinuation records reflect information reported to the FDA and are for informational purposes only. For the most current supply status of a specific product, contact the manufacturer directly.